Latin America and the Caribbean faces uncertain times. Weaker than expected growth in the United States, together with lower corporate earnings and higher interest rates, could lead to a 2.4% accumulated loss in GDP in our region from 2019-2021. Less demand from China might trigger a drop in GDP over the same period, and Brexit potentially threatens to dampen performance in … [Read more...] about As External Challenges Loom, Boosting Growth from Within
The economies of Central America and the Dominican Republic (CADR) have been facing significant challenges that are not limited simply to fiscal issues. We trust that the region will improve its resilience to these challenges by consolidating its economic fundamentals, continuing to push for regional integration, and strengthening its institutions. All of this will contribute … [Read more...] about Central America and the Dominican Republic: Internal Strengths to Face External Challenges
Before the financial crisis of 2008, most governments lacked an institutional framework for handling financial policy. Central banks focused on monetary policy. They mostly used interest rates to influence inflation and output, believing such a focus could guarantee economic stability. But when it came to financial policy they were inclined to trust the invisible hand of the … [Read more...] about When Focusing on the Interest Rate is Not Enough
The outlook for the global economy has shifted from a situation of healthy, broad-based growth across the larger economic blocks to a more nuanced view of growth perspectives, with substantial risks clouding the horizons. Considering the 12 months from 2017 Q3 to 2018 Q3, growth in the United States was 3% but many suggest that this relatively high rate will fade through 2019 … [Read more...] about Putting Latin America and the Caribbean’s 2019 Growth Prospects in Perspective
As the U.S. economy continues to grow and the labor market tightens, there is an increasing likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. The consequences will reverberate in Latin America and the Caribbean. Our research suggests there are reasons for concern, but also ways countries can offset the risks. It is key that countries in the region take this … [Read more...] about How Vulnerable Are Latin American and Caribbean Economies to a Sudden Stop in Capital Flows?