After a robust economic recovery last year from the lows of the pandemic, Latin America and the Caribbean faces strong headwinds from potential new coronavirus variants, inflation-fighting efforts in advanced economies, and the war between Russia and Ukraine that could depress world growth and even push the region into recession by 2023. Riding a wave of strong growth … [Read more...] about From Pandemic to Inflation and War: Challenges for Policymakers in Latin America and the Caribbean
Victoria Nuguer
Victoria Nuguer is a Research Economist in the Inter-American Development Bank’s Research Department. She holds a Ph.D. from École Polytechnique Fédéral de Lausanne in Switzerland and a bachelor’s degree from the Universidad de Buenos Aires in Argentina. Prior to joining the Bank in May 2017, she spent nearly three years as a Research Economist in the Bank of Mexico. Victoria’s main research agenda focuses on building dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to explain key financial transmission mechanisms in closed and open economies. For closed economies, she has focused on the propagation of financial shocks from the housing sector to the rest of the economy. Regarding open economies, Victoria has studied the international transmission of financial shocks from advanced to emerging economies through the bank lending channel. Recently, she has been working on understanding the strategic interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies and on the role of trade credit when firms set prices in emerging economies.
Inflation and Its Impact on the Poor in the Era of COVID-19
Inflation has become a growing concern for central banks in Latin America and the Caribbean. The recovery in economic activity was stronger than expected in the first months of 2021, reflecting the stimulus that governments deployed to mitigate the effects of the pandemic and higher mobility and lower containment measures. However, inflation and inflation expectations in the … [Read more...] about Inflation and Its Impact on the Poor in the Era of COVID-19
How New Predictive Models and Timely Data Lead to Better Public Policy Decisions
In recent years, advances in the standardization and statistical treatment of standard variables have allowed greater precision in the reporting of short- and long-term economic activity, including, among others, GDP, inflation, and the unemployment rate. But the application of the complex, technical methodologies required in arriving at those calculations has also delayed the … [Read more...] about How New Predictive Models and Timely Data Lead to Better Public Policy Decisions
Amidst the Pandemic, A Battle for Inclusion
The year 2019 was the year anger over social issues took to the streets in Latin America and the Caribbean. Poverty and inequality in the region had fallen following the commodity boom of the 2000s, but more recent years of low growth brought that progress to a standstill. Mass frustration erupted. Amidst high youth unemployment and government-imposed adjustment programs, … [Read more...] about Amidst the Pandemic, A Battle for Inclusion
What Can Central Banks Do to Mitigate the Effects of the Coronavirus?
The unprecedented conditions created by the spread of the coronavirus call for exceptional policy responses from the regional monetary authorities. Besides traditional tools such as interest rate reductions, central banks have been pursuing unconventional measures to avoid permanent consequences from a transitory, but potentially severe, negative shock. Since the 2008 global … [Read more...] about What Can Central Banks Do to Mitigate the Effects of the Coronavirus?