Debt levels in Latin America and the Caribbean increased steadily during the last decade and soared in 2020 with the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 72% of GDP. In response to the pandemic, countries mobilized considerable resources to support families and firms. Since 2020, debt ratios have declined as economies recovered and fiscal deficits were shaved. Still, with falling growth … [Read more...] about Debt, Growth, and Interest Rates: Assessing Sustainability in Latin America and the Caribbean
Oscar Valencia
Oscar Valencia is a Lead Specialist in the Fiscal and Municipal Management Division of the IDB. Prior to joining the IDB, Oscar was General Director of Macroeconomic Policy at the Colombian Ministry of Finance. He has served as technical secretary of Colombia’s Independent Committee for Fiscal Rules and member of the boards of directors of several Colombian companies. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the Toulouse School of Economics.
Dealing with Debt
The Rise in Debt Total debt in Latin America and the Caribbean has risen to 5.8 trillion US dollars from under 3 trillion in 2008, or to 117% from around 60% of GDP. Total debt in the five largest economies is around 140% of GDP. While this is lower than in many advanced economies, emerging economies face higher interest rates, greater risks and a larger drag on growth from … [Read more...] about Dealing with Debt
Lessons from the Lost Decade for Confronting Inflation Today
Inflation in Latin America is currently running at its highest level in 15 years. With uncertainty about how it will unfold, the expectations of people and firms are largely de-anchored, meaning distinct from the central banks’ target levels, and thus a potential source of even greater inflation. Meanwhile, as world interest rates rise, countries in the region are finding it … [Read more...] about Lessons from the Lost Decade for Confronting Inflation Today
Avoiding a New Lost Decade for Latin America and the Caribbean
The Covid-19 pandemic has unleashed a health and economic crisis. Countries are providing exceptional support to families and firms and suffering significant losses in public revenues. Debt ratios are rising. Getting fiscal policy right and maintaining financial stability will be key to ensuring a return to growth and avoid a lost decade in Latin America and the Caribbean. A … [Read more...] about Avoiding a New Lost Decade for Latin America and the Caribbean