Debt levels in Latin America and the Caribbean increased steadily during the last decade and soared in 2020 with the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 72% of GDP. In response to the pandemic, countries mobilized considerable resources to support families and firms. Since 2020, debt ratios have declined as economies recovered and fiscal deficits were shaved. Still, with falling growth … [Read more...] about Debt, Growth, and Interest Rates: Assessing Sustainability in Latin America and the Caribbean
Oscar Valencia
Oscar Valencia es Especialista Principal en la División de Gestión Fiscal del BID y líder de la plataforma FISLAC, Sostenibilidad Fiscal para América Latina y el Caribe. Antes de unirse al BID, Oscar fue Director General de Política Macroeconómica en el Ministerio de Finanzas de Colombia. Se ha desempeñado como secretario técnico del Comité Independiente para la Regla Fiscal de Colombia y miembro de varios consejos de administración en organizaciones colombianas como Colpensiones (Sistema Público de Pensiones Definido de Colombia), Coljuegos (Regulador Nacional del Juego de Colombia), así como Director Gerente Interino de Fogafin (Fondo de Garantía de Instituciones Financieras). También fue investigador del Banco Central de Colombia y del Departamento Nacional de Planeación de Colombia. Previamente fue consultor en temas fiscales en el Departamento de Investigación del BID. Los intereses de investigación de Oscar se encuentran en los campos de la política fiscal y la macroeconomía, principalmente las economías emergentes. Ha publicado en varias revistas académicas sobre temas relacionados con la política macroeconómica. Tiene un Ph.D. en Economía con Honores y Maestría en Economía Matemática de la Escuela de Economía de Toulouse (TSE), y Licenciatura y Maestría en Economía con Honores de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia.
Dealing with Debt
The Rise in Debt Total debt in Latin America and the Caribbean has risen to 5.8 trillion US dollars from under 3 trillion in 2008, or to 117% from around 60% of GDP. Total debt in the five largest economies is around 140% of GDP. While this is lower than in many advanced economies, emerging economies face higher interest rates, greater risks and a larger drag on growth from … [Read more...] about Dealing with Debt
Lessons from the Lost Decade for Confronting Inflation Today
Inflation in Latin America is currently running at its highest level in 15 years. With uncertainty about how it will unfold, the expectations of people and firms are largely de-anchored, meaning distinct from the central banks’ target levels, and thus a potential source of even greater inflation. Meanwhile, as world interest rates rise, countries in the region are finding it … [Read more...] about Lessons from the Lost Decade for Confronting Inflation Today
Avoiding a New Lost Decade for Latin America and the Caribbean
The Covid-19 pandemic has unleashed a health and economic crisis. Countries are providing exceptional support to families and firms and suffering significant losses in public revenues. Debt ratios are rising. Getting fiscal policy right and maintaining financial stability will be key to ensuring a return to growth and avoid a lost decade in Latin America and the Caribbean. A … [Read more...] about Avoiding a New Lost Decade for Latin America and the Caribbean