As the U.S. economy continues to grow and the labor market tightens, there is an increasing likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. The consequences will reverberate in Latin America and the Caribbean. Our research suggests there are reasons for concern, but also ways countries can offset the risks. It is key that countries in the region take this … [Read more...] about How Vulnerable Are Latin American and Caribbean Economies to a Sudden Stop in Capital Flows?
Countries have long relied on the issuance of debt to finance their expenditures and investments. However, it can be risky. Episodes such as the worldwide debt crisis of 1983, with its dramatic effects on Latin America, and the more recent European debt crisis, show that countries need to be cautious when choosing their debt levels. High levels of debt coupled with periods of … [Read more...] about When Expectations Push a Country to Default
As Borges famously remarked, “Reality is not always probable, or likely.” So it seems in Latin America and the Caribbean: of all possible outcomes the one we have lived through is not the one many would have predicted. Moreover, as we look to the future, current forecasts display marked differences across countries and are subject to very high uncertainty. As this year … [Read more...] about Living in the Age of Uncertainty