After the Brexit referendum and the US election, commentators on all sides have sparred over who are the winners and losers when it comes to trade. Most economists agree that more trade on the whole is good, but that its impact can vary dramatically. The relationship between trade and inequality is then less obvious. For starters, the impacts of trade on inequality may be very … [Read more...] about Trade: Winners and Losers in the North and South
As Borges famously remarked, “Reality is not always probable, or likely.” So it seems in Latin America and the Caribbean: of all possible outcomes the one we have lived through is not the one many would have predicted. Moreover, as we look to the future, current forecasts display marked differences across countries and are subject to very high uncertainty. As this year … [Read more...] about Living in the Age of Uncertainty
Many emerging economies, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean, are facing growing debt, fiscal deficits and low growth. Given the direction of debt-to-GDP ratios, many countries are choosing “adjustment” to maintain sustainability. In this blog, I offer 10 priorities that might guide a period of Considerate Consolidation. Priority 1: Speed. If output is at potential … [Read more...] about How to Adjust: 10 Priorities for Emerging Economies
The UK is a country of just 242 thousand square kilometers (compared to Mexico’s 1.9 mn, Argentina’s 2.7 mn and Brazil’s 8.4 mn) located about 7,000 km from Barbados and more than 7,500 km from anywhere on the mainland of Latin America (it’s just over 7,500 km from London to Simon Bolivar airport, Caracas and over 8,000 km to the Yucatan). Considering Latin America’s two … [Read more...] about BREXIT: What Does It Mean for Latin America and the Caribbean?
The IDB’s 2016 Macro Report Time to Act outlines the tough policy conundrum facing the region: low growth to 2020, monetary policy—where it exists—limited by higher inflation and many countries being forced into pro-cyclical fiscal adjustment. What can countries do to boost economic activity, lower the risks of a high debt-low growth spiral and defend the social gains made in … [Read more...] about The Policy Conundrum in Latin America and the Caribbean: Let’s Revisit the Trade Agenda!