As Borges famously remarked, “Reality is not always probable, or likely.” So it seems in Latin America and the Caribbean: of all possible outcomes the one we have lived through is not the one many would have predicted. Moreover, as we look to the future, current forecasts display marked differences across countries and are subject to very high uncertainty. As this year … [Read more...] about Living in the Age of Uncertainty
Latin America’s Macroeconomic Update: Looking Up
At the end of the third quarter, the growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean was an estimated -0.6% for 2016. For the first time since 1982-83, the region is expected to post two consecutive years of negative growth. However, looking beyond the numbers there is some good news in this latest report. To begin with, things looked considerably worse earlier in the … [Read more...] about Latin America’s Macroeconomic Update: Looking Up
Democracy Does Not Cause Growth
Does democracy cause more economic prosperity and growth? This question dates back to Plato and Aristotle’s debate regarding which form of government brings more political and economic gain to society. However, after more than two millennia, there seems to be no clear consensus about whether democracy (in and of itself) delivers more economic growth than autocratic forms of … [Read more...] about Democracy Does Not Cause Growth
BREXIT: What Does It Mean for Latin America and the Caribbean?
The UK is a country of just 242 thousand square kilometers (compared to Mexico’s 1.9 mn, Argentina’s 2.7 mn and Brazil’s 8.4 mn) located about 7,000 km from Barbados and more than 7,500 km from anywhere on the mainland of Latin America (it’s just over 7,500 km from London to Simon Bolivar airport, Caracas and over 8,000 km to the Yucatan). Considering Latin America’s two … [Read more...] about BREXIT: What Does It Mean for Latin America and the Caribbean?
Climate Change and its Indoor Impacts
The shriveled crops and bleached bones of livestock across large areas of South America following recent droughts may be just the beginning. By mid-century climate change is likely to boost temperatures by 2 degrees centigrade or more. Droughts and downpours are likely to become more intense and frequent; floods and storms, more destructive. As discussed in a recent report by … [Read more...] about Climate Change and its Indoor Impacts