Every election season, polling data fills headlines, drives campaign strategies, and sways public policy decisions. But what if the numbers aren’t as straightforward as they seem? And if subtle biases in how we ask questions or who asks them distorts our understanding of public sentiment? Our recent research sheds light on this issue by exploring a specific, yet often … [Read more...] about Are Polls Accurate? The Power of the Interviewer in Creating Bias
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Is Social Media Remaking Latin American Elections?
Social media platforms like Facebook and WhatsApp are becoming primary channels of political engagement in Latin America. Throughout the region’s democracies, large majorities of adults now report receiving or sharing political information on social networks. Ten years ago, only a tenth did so. The dramatic growth in social media’s political relevance cannot be overemphasized. … [Read more...] about Is Social Media Remaking Latin American Elections?
When Too Much Choice Distorts Electoral Results
As if we couldn't think for ourselves when it comes to pouring hot liquids down our throats, the warnings about hot tea and coffee are ubiquitous. “Caution Handle with Care I’m Hot,” says one cup. "Caution Contents Hot," says another, with variations on the theme repeated in thousands of restaurants and cafes around the world. Businesses, it seems, don't trust us to be careful … [Read more...] about When Too Much Choice Distorts Electoral Results
When Tax Hikes Doom Governments at the Polls
A Latin American president faces a steep economic downturn. She introduces fiscal austerity measures, perhaps a tax hike, to try to contain the damage. Mass protests erupt, police clash with demonstrators, and the political mood grows darker by the day. Can the president and her party survive? The short answer is usually no. In a recent study, Martín Ardanaz, Mark Hallerberg … [Read more...] about When Tax Hikes Doom Governments at the Polls
Latin America and the Risk of State Failure
By Arjun Chowdhury and Cesi Cruz What links Latin American nations to failed states like Syria and the Democratic Republic of Congo? By most objective measures, not much. Syria is the epitome of chaos, suffering from a civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced or exiled millions more. Ethnic, religious and political conflict similarly takes a huge human … [Read more...] about Latin America and the Risk of State Failure