As Borges famously remarked, “Reality is not always probable, or likely.” So it seems in Latin America and the Caribbean: of all possible outcomes the one we have lived through is not the one many would have predicted. Moreover, as we look to the future, current forecasts display marked differences across countries and are subject to very high uncertainty. As this year … [Read more...] about Living in the Age of Uncertainty
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Happy Days Are Not Here Again
The region’s oil exporters are enjoying a mild reprieve from devastatingly low prices. For now. While the price uptick may have several causes, the most dramatic contributing factor is the Fort McMurray fire in the Canadian province of Alberta. The wildfire covers an area larger than some of the world’s major cities, and officials have estimated it will take weeks or even … [Read more...] about Happy Days Are Not Here Again
Because Waiting for the Next Boom is Not Enough
Economies grew, millions were lifted from poverty, and social safety nets widened to support a growing share of vulnerable populations. When the United States and Europe experienced sharp downturns during the international financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, some governments in the region were able to increase spending and keep their own economies from slipping into … [Read more...] about Because Waiting for the Next Boom is Not Enough
Riding the Commodities Roller Coaster in Latin America
Commodity booms and busts are nearly as old as the discovery in Latin America of copper, coal and oil. But after the exhilarating rise of commodity prices during 2004-2012, the most recent descent, with its painful manifestations of contracting economies, fiscal deficits, currency depreciations and inflation, has struck the region particularly hard. But how hard? And why? A … [Read more...] about Riding the Commodities Roller Coaster in Latin America
Time to Act: Macroeconomic Report 2016
It’s Time to Act for Latin America and the Caribbean. The region is facing negative growth this year, some countries are facing very difficult economic conditions and others are faced with low growth that will do little to improve living conditions. How did we get here? What does the future hold? The 2016 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report argues urgent policy … [Read more...] about Time to Act: Macroeconomic Report 2016