An old Irish joke has a tourist in the rural west of Ireland asking a local if he knows how to get to Dublin. After a long pause and considerable thought, the local replies, “yes, but I wouldn’t start from here.” Unfortunately, with the highest overall fiscal deficit of any region of the world in 2017 (over 6% of GDP) this is a bit how it feels in Latin America and the … [Read more...] about The Big Adjustment: Fiscal Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean
Macroeconomics and Finance
How Political Polarization Holds Latin America Back
There are countries where there is a great deal of consensus on issues of national importance, and countries where that consensus is lacking, where the population is divided, distrustful of political opponents, and unwilling to compromise. The latter are polarized societies, and their cleavages lead to worse outcomes in a whole gamut of areas, ranging from greater insecurity … [Read more...] about How Political Polarization Holds Latin America Back
When Politics Distorts Tax Reform
The voters of the United States will ultimately weigh in on the wisdom of the large $1.5 trillion tax cuts headed for a final vote before the end of the year in the U.S. Congress. They will make it clear in the November 2018 legislative elections whether they believe that steep reductions in corporate taxes and income taxes for the wealthy are a sound investment in economic … [Read more...] about When Politics Distorts Tax Reform
The Good, Bad and Unexpected of Fiscal Rules
Caribbean countries still face a delicate fiscal situation. While a number of Caribbean economies have reduced their debt burden, the majority face high sovereign debt levels that weigh on their prospects for strong and sustainable growth. In the context of weak fiscal stances and high dependence on foreign external conditions, it makes sense to implement fiscal rules that … [Read more...] about The Good, Bad and Unexpected of Fiscal Rules
Rethinking Inflation Targeting: What Do the UK and Latin America Have in Common?
On November 2, 2017, the Bank of England increased its policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%. At the same time, it issued the sternest warning yet that Brexit would have a negative impact on the economy. The statement made the markets think that the economy was weaker than previously thought, or that the Bank of England might be more dovish than expected in the future. The … [Read more...] about Rethinking Inflation Targeting: What Do the UK and Latin America Have in Common?