Inter-American Development Bank
facebook
twitter
youtube
linkedin
instagram
Abierto al públicoBeyond BordersCaribbean Development TrendsCiudades SosteniblesEnergía para el FuturoEnfoque EducaciónFactor TrabajoGente SaludableGestión fiscalGobernarteIdeas MatterIdeas que CuentanIdeaçãoImpactoIndustrias CreativasLa Maleta AbiertaMoviliblogMás Allá de las FronterasNegocios SosteniblesPrimeros PasosPuntos sobre la iSeguridad CiudadanaSostenibilidadVolvamos a la fuente¿Y si hablamos de igualdad?Home
Citizen Security and Justice Creative Industries Development Effectiveness Early Childhood Development Education Energy Envirnment. Climate Change and Safeguards Fiscal policy and management Gender and Diversity Health Labor and pensions Open Knowledge Public management Science, Technology and Innovation  Trade and Regional Integration Urban Development and Housing Water and Sanitation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to secondary menu
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Ideas Matter

  • HOME
  • CATEGORIES
    • Behavioral Economics
    • Environment and Climate Change
    • Macroeconomics and Finance
    • Microeconomics and Competitiveness
    • Politics and Institutions
    • Social Issues
  • Authors
  • Spanish

US Interest Rates and the Cost of Borrowing for Emerging Economies

December 9, 2022 by João Ayres - Marina Perrupato Leave a Comment


With the first signs of decelerating inflation in the United States, countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are probably asking themselves when borrowing costs will fall again. Lower inflation rates in the US, after all, could allow the Federal Reserve to end its cycle of rising interest rates sooner than expected and start eventually reducing the Fed Funds Rate (its monetary policy rate and the interest rate US banks charge each other to lend funds overnight).

But a lower Fed Funds Rate may not necessarily play that big of a role for our region over the next few  years. Even if it reduces interest payments on new debt issuances at this moment of large fiscal deficits and debt levels, its direct effects are likely to be mild at best.

Countries in this context would do well to keep focusing on bolstering their fundamentals: improving fiscal balances, reducing debt levels, and seeking policies to promote growth.

Countries that issue bonds in foreign markets are charged a spread over a benchmark rate. For dollar-denominated bonds, the benchmark is usually the interest rate on US government securities of similar maturity. An increase in the Fed Funds Rate represents a direct increase in the short-term benchmark rate, and may also increase the long-term benchmark rates.  In turn, investors may demand a larger premium in the face of the underlying risks associated with higher benchmark rates, leading to an increase in spreads as well.

Short and Long-Term Rates Don’t Necessarily Move Together 

Figure 1a shows the evolution of the Fed Funds Rate and the 10-year yield on US Treasury Notes over the last 25 years. It shows that the long-term rate does not always move together with the short-term one. Take, for example, the period between 2009 and 2019. We observed sizeable variations in the long-term rates while the (short-term) policy rate remained roughly constant and close to zero. But when the policy rate started to increase around 2016/17, the long-term rates stayed put. By contrast, the 10-year yield increased together with the Fed Funds Rate in 2022 when the Fed began its current monetary tightening cycle.

Does this mean that the long-term and short-term rates will fall together if the Fed eases it cycle of rising interest rates? With all the discussions surrounding the fiscal imbalances in the US and the recent turmoil in the United Kingdom’s bond markets, this is far from clear. If it doesn’t happen, countries in the region may choose to issue debt of shorter maturities, exploring the lower short-term rates, but at the cost of exposing themselves to rollover risks.

Figure 1a: US Policy Rate and 10-Year Yield on US Treasury Note

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Figure 1b: US Policy Rate and EMBI Latam Spreads

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan
Note: EMBI LATAM is calculated by J.P Morgan and represents the average spread of securities issued by Latin American countries over US Treasuries with a similar maturity.

The Risks of Debt Crises

Now, even if the benchmark rates fall, there are implications for the spreads to consider. Figure 1b shows an average of bond spreads for a group of Latin American and Caribbean countries, the EMBI LATAM, together with the US policy rate. Peaks in the EMBI LATAM spread, associated with debt crises, do not always coincide with the peaks in the US policy rates. In fact, there have been situations where spreads have peaked during periods of reduction in the US policy rate and in periods in which the policy rate was at record low levels. This pattern suggests that other factors such as world economic growth, commodity prices, self-fulfilling crises, and domestic economic and fiscal conditions, are more important in pushing countries into debt crises. The literature on quantitative sovereign default show something similar: Shocks to the world interest rate have played a secondary role as a source of default episodes in recent decades.

US benchmark rates may begin to fall again, bringing lower costs for debt issuance for countries in our region. But it is not the whole story: Serious debt problems can emerge from other sources, and countries need to proceed with caution.


Filed Under: Macroeconomics and Finance

João Ayres

É economista do Departamento de Pesquisa do BID. Seus interesses de pesquisa se concentram em economia internacional, macroeconomia e finanças públicas. Formado em economia pela Universidade de São Paulo, João tem mestrado e doutorado em economia pela Fundação Getúlio Vargas e doutorado em Economia pela Universidade de Minnesota.

Marina Perrupato

Marina Perrupato is a research fellow in the IDB Research Department. Her research interests are in the fields of macroeconomics, monetary policy, public finance, and international economics. She holds a master's degree in Economics from Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio) and a bachelor's degree in Economics from Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG).

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Primary Sidebar

Follow Us

Subscribe

Search

Related posts

  • Debt, Growth, and Interest Rates: Assessing Sustainability in Latin America and the Caribbean
  • When Expectations Push a Country to Default
  • US Banking Fragilities and the Potential Impacts on Latin America and the Caribbean
  • As External Challenges Loom, Boosting Growth from Within
  • Walking the Monetary Tightrope: Latin America’s Challenge in Lowering Interest Rates

About this blog

The blog of the IDB's Research Department shares ideas that matter on public policy and development in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Footer

Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo
facebook
twitter
youtube
youtube
youtube

    Blog posts written by Bank employees:

    Copyright © Inter-American Development Bank ("IDB"). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons IGO 3.0 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives. (CC-IGO 3.0 BY-NC-ND) license and may be reproduced with attribution to the IDB and for any non-commercial purpose. No derivative work is allowed. Any dispute related to the use of the works of the IDB that cannot be settled amicably shall be submitted to arbitration pursuant to the UNCITRAL rules. The use of the IDB's name for any purpose other than for attribution, and the use of IDB's logo shall be subject to a separate written license agreement between the IDB and the user and is not authorized as part of this CC- IGO license. Note that link provided above includes additional terms and conditions of the license.


    For blogs written by external parties:

    For questions concerning copyright for authors that are not IADB employees please complete the contact form for this blog.

    The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDB, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent.

    Attribution: in addition to giving attribution to the respective author and copyright owner, as appropriate, we would appreciate if you could include a link that remits back the IDB Blogs website.



    Privacy Policy

    Copyright © 2025 · Magazine Pro on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in

    Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo

    Aviso Legal

    Las opiniones expresadas en estos blogs son las de los autores y no necesariamente reflejan las opiniones del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, sus directivas, la Asamblea de Gobernadores o sus países miembros.

    facebook
    twitter
    youtube
    This site uses cookies to optimize functionality and give you the best possible experience. If you continue to navigate this website beyond this page, cookies will be placed on your browser.
    To learn more about cookies, click here
    X
    Manage consent

    Privacy Overview

    This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
    Necessary
    Always Enabled
    Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
    Non-necessary
    Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.
    SAVE & ACCEPT