Latin America and the Caribbean—like the rest of the world—is facing a challenge like none in its modern history. The coronavirus, with no vaccine or cure to curb it yet, has swept every continent, infecting more than 3.1 million people and killing more than 220,000 as of late April. Without a determined health response, it could have killed as many as 3.2 million people in our … [Read more...] about Policies to Fight the Pandemic in Latin America
The unprecedented conditions created by the spread of the coronavirus call for exceptional policy responses from the regional monetary authorities. Besides traditional tools such as interest rate reductions, central banks have been pursuing unconventional measures to avoid permanent consequences from a transitory, but potentially severe, negative shock. Since the 2008 global … [Read more...] about What Can Central Banks Do to Mitigate the Effects of the Coronavirus?
The novel coronavirus and the disease it causes, Covid-19, have imposed severe human and economic costs around the world. Cases are growing in Latin America and the Caribbean and if there is one lesson from other countries it is that early action to stop the spread of the virus is key. A recent analysis suggests that there would have been around 3.3 million deaths in the region … [Read more...] about Policies and Projections for Latin America and the Caribbean in the Time of Covid-19
What’s going on in Latin American and Caribbean economies? Growth keeps falling, but unlike the rest of the world, inflation keeps going up (see Figure 1). In this blog I outline two possible views. Policy choices—and what to expect in 2016 and beyond—may depend on the explanation. Some argue that advanced economies have entered a phase of secular stagnation (See Larry … [Read more...] about Latin American and Caribbean Macro: Secular Stagflation or (Just) a Painful Transition?
Commodity prices are very persistent. During booms we seem to forget that they have always (yes, always) been followed by busts (see Figure 1). And during a slump we forget that a boom is surely going to come along— we just have to wait long enough. What determines such booms and busts? Was the last boom exceptional? Where are prices today relative to long-run trends? And the … [Read more...] about Commodity Prices: over 100 Years of Booms and Busts…