Commodity prices are falling or are at their lowest point in years. The demographic boom is fading. Debts are on the rise, and many currencies have undergone sharp depreciations. What does all this mean for Latin America and the Caribbean? Our 2016 Macroeconomic Report Time to Act looks at some of the critical issues facing countries in the region. It explores the fiscal … [Read more...] about Adjusting to Shocks to Protect the Region’s Future
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Commodity Prices (Again): Permanent or Temporary Shocks?
I returned home recently from another excellent “di Tella Summer Camp”. It’s no longer in the summer, it was not held in the Universidad Torcuato di Tella and it’s now called the Workshop in International Economics and Finance but the event is still going strong; this was the 19th year! Our extremely hospitable hosts were the Central Bank of Colombia and in the “policy panel” … [Read more...] about Commodity Prices (Again): Permanent or Temporary Shocks?
Latin American and Caribbean Macro: Secular Stagflation or (Just) a Painful Transition?
What’s going on in Latin American and Caribbean economies? Growth keeps falling, but unlike the rest of the world, inflation keeps going up (see Figure 1). In this blog I outline two possible views. Policy choices—and what to expect in 2016 and beyond—may depend on the explanation.[1] Some argue that advanced economies have entered a phase of secular stagnation (See Larry … [Read more...] about Latin American and Caribbean Macro: Secular Stagflation or (Just) a Painful Transition?
Fiscal Procyclicality? Bad Luck or Bad Decisions?
By Leopoldo Avellan and Guillermo Vuletin* Has it ever happened to you that by mid-year, when looking through the household bills you realize that your income is not what you expected, so you have to postpone the car you had planned to buy, give up that vacation you had promised your family, and even change the kids’ school you thought you could afford? Such decisions … [Read more...] about Fiscal Procyclicality? Bad Luck or Bad Decisions?
Democratization of Latin American Data
How a Database is Helping People Make Better Informed Decisions It all started seven years ago, when a group of senior research economists realized that by collecting macroeconomic and financial data from the 26 borrowing member countries of the Inter-American Development Bank in a very simple Excel file they were—nearly by accident—creating a region-wide database for … [Read more...] about Democratization of Latin American Data