The fact that 2023 was the warmest year on record in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) should be reason enough to be concerned about the effects of a changing planet on people in our region. The Amazon recently suffered the worst drought in the last 50 years, and Central America had a record number of hurricanes and floods. As a result of its geography and because of climate change, LAC is the second region in the world most prone to natural disasters: in the first two decades of the century, the region suffered over 1,300 disasters, of which 91% were climate-related.
Paradoxically, those who contribute less to a warming planet –the poor and most vulnerable populations– are the most affected by its effects.
Temperature in South America since 1901
In LAC, approximately half of the poor population live in areas that are considered high risk to natural shocks. Moreover, the assets of the poorest tend to be physical assets, and less in the form of savings as in the case of non-poor households, and are therefore more vulnerable to destruction in the event of disasters. The income of poor and vulnerable households often relies on informal employment, and they are overrepresented in sectors involving physical activities in outdoor environments (such as agriculture or construction, for example), making them particularly susceptible to rising temperatures and heatwaves. For this reason, it is estimated that poor people lose two to three times more than non-poor people when disasters and extreme weather events occur.
In this context, social protection systems in the region are key. And they also need to adapt.
Map showing areas with high poverty and high vulnerability to natural disasters
Sharing Knowledge and Experiences to Promote Adaptive Social Protection in LAC
It is true that in the recent pandemic –as in many crises–, our social protection systems have risen up to the occasion, but this has not been by design. It has usually been as a reaction to something that had already taken place. How can we stay ahead of the sense of urgency? What changes do we need to make?
To answer this questions, the IDB brought together policymakers and experts from inside and outside LAC for the Regional Policy Dialogue in Lima, Peru. The event involved the participation of representatives from 31 countries, including representatives from ministries of finance, social protection and health. There were five ministers, five vice-ministers and 33 high level directors of areas related to adaptive social protection. In addition, the event welcomed the participation of strategic partners such as the World Bank, FAO, ECLAC, AFD, and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, among others.
How to Protect the Most Vulnerable from the Effects of Climate Change?
One significant conclusion of the event is that most countries in the region are taking steps to reform their social protection systems and make them more adaptive.
Actions to achieve this include legal reforms to define roles and responsibilities in the event of a crisis, the use of instruments to identify the most vulnerable households in advance or to assess those most affected after the event. Other measures include strengthening social registries and making them more sustainable by enabling interoperability with administrative data sources. The event also showcased the use of artificial intelligence (AI) by analyzing satellite images to ensure that social registries include all vulnerable households and the use of AI to identify where to invest in infrastructure to expand services.
While the use of cash transfers is one of the main tools to assist households, it is certainly not the only one or even the most important one. The event highlighted efforts being made by countries in the region to adapt social services to a new and more uncertain world. This includes creating protocols to keep early childhood development centers providing services, as in the case of Ecuador, and to create extra support for the elderly, as in the case of heat waves following the example of France. In rural areas, where ecosystems are crucial for community well-being, social protection programs should transform into “socio-environmental” protection, fostering the development of resilient livelihoods and the preservation of natural capital, as evidenced by Brazil’s experience.
So, what do we need to develop adaptive social protection systems that act in an agile manner to protect our most vulnerable citizens? We try to answer this question by using our adaptive social protection maturity model as a framework. This model includes seven dimensions, each of which we consider essential to build an adaptive social protection system. These are:
- Country context. There are many factors that are needed to make an adaptive social protection system functional. Development of the financial sector, especially in rural areas, is key.
- Governance and financing. Perhaps one of the crucial factors behind adaptive social protection systems is having clarity regarding the roles of the many institutions that are involved: Everyone needs to know their function in a crisis and how actions will be funded before something happens.
- Management capacity. Making adaptive social protection systems operational requires capacity to coordinate many institutions. People need protocols and constant training.
- Infostructure and infrastructure. Institutional coordination is essential for establishing infrastructure for an adaptive social protection system. Strong information systems are also needed to identify affected households and provide them with assistance. Interoperability is crucial to for maintaining updated information and reducing the costs of social registries.
- Services and access points. This is another key way to stay connected with citizens. It is important to provide them with easy access for people to enter or update their information to access assistance in the case of emergencies.
- Coverage of programs. The existence of social programs facilitates action in the case of emergencies because there will be knowledge of how to access resources and communication channels.
- Informed Social Protection. Finally, it is very important to make use of available information for decision making. During the Dialogue, varioustools were showcased for this purpose, including both simple tools and advanced artificial intelligence.
We live in a region vulnerable to different types of shocks and the long-term effects of climate change. The Regional Policy Dialogue served as a catalyst for renewed efforts to prepare for a more volatile world and support resilience of poor and vulnerable populations. At the IDB, we are prepared to provide support and expertise to help countries meet these challenges.
Leave a Reply