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Cities are the engines of economic and social development; home of the majority of the world’s population, and host of most of economic activities, cultural assets, and institutions. Therefore, the future of cities is decisive for the future of our planet. In other words, properly caring for, adapting, managing, and planning cities is essential to achieve international climate commitments, including the Sustainable Development Goals or the Paris Agreements.
Do you want to know what the future holds for cities in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)? In this article, which kicks off a series of blog posts on the effects of climate change on the future of our region, we will address some questions related to the reasons and ways in which cities in LAC will grow in the coming decades. Don’t miss it!
Cities, Megacities, and Metropolitan Areas
LAC is one of the most urbanized continents on the planet. If current demographic trends continue, by 2050 more than 86% of the region’s population will be living in cities. Currently, 11% percent of the 17,600 LAC municipalities account for more than two-thirds of the entire urban population.
Most urban residents in LAC will concentrate in a few metropolises. The ten largest cities in the region are home to one in four urban households, and about 40% of LAC’s urban population resides in a conurbation municipality, compared with 33 percent of the world’s urban population. The average metropolitan area in the region has around two million residents and includes almost ten administrative units or municipalities. Only half of the 75 largest metropolitan areas in LAC have some institutionalized level of metropolitan coordination.
Factors Behind Urban Growth
Urban growth is a complex phenomenon, but two factors stand out in LAC: demographic changes and climate change, the latter also affecting demographics by triggering migratory flows.
Regarding demographic changes, the past decades show a trend -in average- toward smaller and older households. About 18 countries in LAC have fertility rates below replacement level, one of the factors explaining the trend toward smaller households. For example, in Lima, Peru, the average household size in 2017 was 3.4 people, compared to 3.9 in 2010. At the same time, the percentage of people over 60 years old continues to increase in all countries. In 2014, for the first time in the region, this population segment accounted for a larger percentage than the population under 15 years old.
On the other hand, climate change is a decisive factor in the growth of cities. The effects of climate change are already behind the increase in migratory flows in LAC. This is observed both from small to large cities in the Southern Cone and from rural to urban areas in Central America, as well as the trend to migrate to other countries in the Caribbean. For instance, Hurricane Mitch prompted the relocation of 100,000 to 150,000 people in Central America in 1998, particularly Honduras and Nicaragua. From 1996 to 2010, climate shocks led over 3 million people to leave their homes in the Brazilian Semiarid region. Slow-onset events—such as prolonged rainfalls and extended droughts—can also trigger migration. For example, in Mexico, a one-percentage-point increase in climate dryness is associated with an average 2.5 percentage-point increase in migration rates from rural to urban municipalities. Likewise, temperature changes that persistently decrease crop yields are associated with rural workers’ relocation to urban areas.
Currently, cities in LAC are relatively dense: 80% have about 2,400 people per square kilometer (p/km2)—far above the world median of 1,500 p/km2. Overall, we observe two patterns of urban growth in the region. While some cities expand their surface area, others do so through densification – that is, increasing their population without increasing their territorial expansion. For example, La Paz, Bolivia; Cordoba, Argentina; Santiago, Chile; and Brasilia, Brazil, are growing by about 11 percent per year. In contrast, cities such as Bogota, Colombia; Lima, Peru; Asuncion, Paraguay; and Santa Cruz, Bolivia are growing through densification. It is also worth noting that the average density of a city may not be representative of each of its neighborhoods. Informal settlements, where one in five urban households in LAC reside, often have much higher densities than the city’s average.
Towards Sustainable Development for Latin America and the Caribbean
Cities in LAC are at a decisive moment to ensure their sustainable development. On the one hand, the interrelated challenges of climate change impacts, rapid urbanization, and demographic changes require innovative and inclusive solutions. On the other hand, public policy, urban planning, and investment in infrastructure must respond to these challenges.
Urban planning is and will be key to mitigate the risks and challenges associated with urban growth. Therefore, combining urban planning with territorial development strategies will help manage demographic changes and the impacts of climate change on urban infrastructure. Some of these infrastructures include critical infrastructure and the construction of adequate and affordable housing. Good territorial planning contributes to more efficient use of resources and more access to basic services, avoiding excessive population concentration in certain areas, and reducing the proliferation of informal settlements.
In the upcoming articles of this series, we will address the importance of applying a holistic approach that addresses the environmental and social aspects of urban growth to foster resilient and prosperous cities.
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