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The Fear Factor a Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation on the Economic Risk of an Ebola Scare in The Caribbean

December 24, 2014 by Juan Pedro Schmid Leave a Comment


This brief presents simulations of an Ebola scare in the Caribbean, including three highly tourism-dependent economies, The Bahamas, Barbados, and Jamaica. On the basis of the experience of Mexico in 2009 with swine flu, we simulate a short but sharp drop in tourist arrivals resulting from tourists’ worries about Ebola.

The Caribbean is special in that tourism contributes directly and indirectly up to half of its GDP. The simulations indicate that the volatility of tourism combined with that dependence creates significant vulnerability for the region. Under the worst-case scenario, a noticeable impact could be expected even in countries with a smaller dependence on tourism. In addition, declines could also be expected for employment and revenues.

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However, ‘pandemic scares’ can be short-lived and the simulations indicate that the Caribbean would be able to absorb a short tourism drop. The intensity and duration of the outfall in tourism would depend on the real and perceived preparedness of the affected countries, highlighting that countries in the Caribbean need to not only avoid or minimize any Ebola cases but also ensure that tourists perceive these countries as safe places.


Filed Under: Economy & Investment, Social Systems Tagged With: brief, caribbean, Ebola, economy, health, pandemic scare, policy brief, swine flu, tourism

Juan Pedro Schmid

Juan Pedro Schmid is a Lead Economist in the Caribbean Country Department of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). Since joining the IDB, Juan Pedro has worked in different capacities, including as a country economist for Jamaica and for Barbados, and as regional macroeconomist. His work has covered a broad range of areas, including macroeconomic monitoring, preparation of country strategies, lending operations, coordination of departmental macroeconomic work, and programming and research on a broad range of topics. Before joining the IDB, he worked for three years as an Economist at the World Bank’s Economic Policy and Debt Department on debt relief operations, technical assistance missions, and advisory services across different regions, including Africa, Asia, and Oceania. He holds a M.A. from the University of Zurich and a Ph.D. from the Federal Institute of Technology, both in economics.

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Caribbean Dev Trends

We provide unique and timely insights on the Caribbean and its political, social, and economic development. At the IDB, we strive to improve lives in the Caribbean by creating vibrant and resilient economies where people are safe, productive and happy.

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